A Study of the Universal Two-child Policy's Impact on China's Future Population
Zhai Zhenwu;Li Long;Chen Jiaju;the Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China;the Beijing Research Institute of Social Construction;
The most essential step in adjusting and improving the childbearing policy, the universal two-child policy will produce far-reaching impacts on the future development of China's population. With its implementation, the country's total population will peak later, the underage population and its proportion will increase substantially, the working-age population will experience a slower decline, and the aging of China's population will be eased. However, the drop in the proportion of working-age people over the last 15 years has expedited the reduction of the demographic dividend, the elderly population will remain unaffected over the next 60 years, the aging of the population will continue to deepen, and at the same time, the increased child dependency burden will expand the overall dependency ratio.